Model STR cash flow across peak, shoulder, and low seasons. See annual P&L, monthly CF by season, stress test at lower occupancy.
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InputsYour Numbers
Peak Season (High)
Peak Season ADR?
$
Peak Occupancy %?
%
Peak Months per Year?
Shoulder Season (Mid)
Shoulder ADR?
$
Shoulder Occupancy %?
%
Shoulder Months per Year?
Low Season
Low Season ADR?
$
Low Occupancy %?
%
Fixed Costs
Monthly Fixed Costs ($)?
$
Variable Cost % of Revenue?
%
As-Is AnalysisCurrent
Enter values to see results
Annual Net Revenue
--
after variable costs
Annual Cash Flow
--
after fixed costs
Blended ADR
--
annual average
Blended Occupancy
--
annual average
Seasonal Revenue Breakdown
Peak Revenue--
Shoulder Revenue--
Low Season Revenue--
Annual Gross Revenue--
Annual P&L
Variable Costs--
Net Revenue--
Fixed Costs (annual)--
Annual Cash Flow--
Monthly CF by Season
Peak Month CF--
Shoulder Month CF--
Low Season Month CF--
Pro FormaAfter Plan
Enter pro forma values
Revenue at -20% Low Occ
--
stress test
Break-Even Occupancy
--
blended to break even
Negative Months
--
months below breakeven
Reserve Needed
--
cover low season losses
Stress Test & Risk Analysis
Annual Revenue (base)--
Annual Revenue (-20% occupancy)--
Revenue Drop in Stress--
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1
Split Into 3 Seasons
Divide your year into peak, shoulder, and low periods. Each has different ADR and occupancy. The total months must add to 12.
2
Enter Seasonal ADR & Occupancy
Use AirDNA market data or your own historical data. Peak occupancy on beach properties can hit 90%+; low season may drop to 30-40%.
3
Set Fixed Monthly Costs
Mortgage, tax, insurance, utilities -- these are the same every month. They are covered easily in peak season and may create deficits in low season.
4
Read Monthly CF by Season
The breakdown shows which months you make money and which you lose. Low season cash flow is often negative -- the question is whether peak profits cover it.
5
Check the Stress Test
The pro forma reduces shoulder and low season occupancy by 20%. If the deal still works, you have margin of safety. If it breaks, you need a cash reserve.
6
Plan Your Reserve Fund
The calculator shows how much you need in reserve to cover negative months. STR investors should keep 3-6 months of fixed costs in cash.
Seasonal STR investing requires understanding that the year is not one average number -- it is 12 very different months. A beach property that generates $8K in July might lose money in February. Annual profitability depends entirely on whether peak season profits exceed off-season deficits.
The key metrics for seasonal STRs: Annual RevPAR (total revenue / 365 nights available), blended occupancy, and critically -- the low season cash flow. Many STR investors are surprised to discover their property loses money 4-6 months per year and only profits in peak season.
Mitigation strategies: dynamic pricing to maximize peak ADR, mid-term rentals (30+ days) during slow months, and maintaining a 3-6 month reserve fund to cover low-season deficits.